Grasberg Mine Continues Suspension, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,006.5/mt, touched a high of $10,013/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,950.5/mt before rising all the way to close at $10,002/mt, up 0.06%, with trading volume at 13,000 lots and open interest at 290,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened at 80,080 yuan/mt, touched a high of 80,130 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then the price center moved downward to a low of 79,820 yuan/mt before fluctuating upward to close at 80,100 yuan/mt, down 0.02%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 173,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On September 20, rescue personnel found the bodies of two workers trapped in the accident on September 8 at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The accident was caused by a sudden inflow of wet material, trapping seven workers underground. Police have intervened to confirm identities, and the remaining five individuals are still under urgent search. Currently, Freeport Indonesia continues to suspend related underground mining operations at the Grasberg mine. As one of the world's important copper-gold mines, the suspension of Grasberg is expected to have some impact on the supply and market prices of gold and copper in the short term.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On September 22, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were quoted at parity to a premium of 120 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 80,100 to 80,350 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper briefly surged to 80,300 yuan/mt before starting to fall, then fluctuated between 80,080 and 80,160 yuan/mt; the inter-month price spread fluctuated between 10-30 yuan/mt, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract widened again to nearly 500 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices stabilizing at 80,000 yuan/mt has somewhat weakened downstream stocking sentiment, but due to the continuous replenishment of imported material, spot premiums are expected to find it difficult to rise, with overall transactions likely to center around levels above parity.

(2) Guangdong: On September 22, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 70 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a discount of 20 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 30 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 80,265 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 80,165 yuan/mt, up 305 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, higher copper prices made downstream buyers reluctant to purchase more, suppliers actively lowered prices to sell, and spot premiums declined.

(3) Imported copper: On September 22, warrant prices were $52-64/mt, QP October, with the average price up $1/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $53-65/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $28-36/mt, QP October, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in late September and early October.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 22, the futures closing price was 80,110 yuan/mt, up 110 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials remained flat MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 73,500-73,700 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,872 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 900 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, secondary copper rod enterprises received average orders during the day. As downstream cable enterprises showed insufficient sentiment for stockpiling, secondary copper rod enterprises were also unwilling to purchase excessive recycled copper raw materials. Therefore, the raw material procurement offers from secondary copper rod enterprises were almost flat compared to last Friday.

(5) Inventory: On September 19, LME copper cathode inventories decreased by 2,275 mt to 145,375 mt. On September 22, SHFE warrant inventories decreased by 1,945 mt to 29,893 mt.

Price: On the macro front, after several US Fed officials sent hawkish signals regarding interest rate cuts, the market reassessed subsequent expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and investment plans. The US dollar index rose first and then fell, causing copper prices to decline before rebounding. On the fundamentals side, supply side, imported supplies continued to arrive steadily, while domestic supply supplements were limited. Demand side, as copper prices returned above 80,000 yuan/mt, downstream stockpiling sentiment weakened. As of September 21, SMM domestic copper cathode inventories decreased by 4,400 mt MoM to 144,500 mt. Overall, affected by the fundamental supply-demand pattern, copper prices are expected to have limited upside today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]